Is Oregon Growing or Shrinking? Portland Migration Trends 2026

By Nick Krautter

Nick Krautter is a Portland-based real estate professional, market analyst, and author of The Golden Handoff: How to Buy and Sell a Real Estate Agent’s Business, which debuted number one on Amazon for mergers and acquisitions.

Everyone has a theory about whether Oregon is growing or shrinking, and most of them are built on a feeling rather than a number. One of the best ways to check that feeling against reality is the Atlas Van Lines migration survey, which tracks whether each state’s moves are running more inbound or more outbound. I promised we’d dig into population and migration trends across the country, so let’s start close to home and work outward.

Oregon is holding steady, not shrinking. Of Oregon’s shipments, 53% are moving out of state, and 47% are coming in. Atlas considers that balanced, so it’s fairly even. It’s worth understanding what these numbers don’t count, too. A lot of the movement in our state stays inside our state. Someone going from Bend to Portland, or from Portland to Eugene, doesn’t register as inbound or outbound here, because they never left Oregon. So when you strip that out, the picture is a state that’s hanging in there rather than emptying out.

Washington is clearly gaining people. Washington skews more toward growth, with 43% of shipments heading out and 57% coming in. A lot of that is the tech world pulling people into the state. When you see that kind of spread, it tells you demand is landing there and staying.

Idaho is one of the fastest-growing in the country. Idaho is not just one of the biggest growth stories in our region; it’s one of the biggest in the country. One-third of moves are going out, and two-thirds are coming in, and most of that growth is landing in the Boise and Treasure Valley area. You’re seeing a similar pull in Montana, which skews a little higher toward in-migration as well. Idaho is largely an affordability story, and for some people, it’s a political and ideological one too, since it tends to be one of the more conservative western states.

California’s exodus is smaller than the memes suggest. Everyone likes to beat up on California, but the real numbers are more moderate than the reputation. The state runs 54% outbound and 46% inbound, close to a 10-point gap, and yet Atlas still classifies that as balanced. So while people love the story of everyone fleeing California, the moving data tells a calmer version of it.

The biggest growth is happening on the East Coast. The states growing the most right now aren’t in our region at all. Delaware and South Carolina are leading the country in positive migration this year. Delaware surprises people, but it makes sense once you look at it. It’s a very affordable state; it’s close to Philadelphia and New York City, and for some people it works as a commuter base for those markets while keeping them on the eastern seaboard at a much lower cost. A big part of our region’s story is that much of the growth is wrapping around Oregon rather than landing squarely within it.

Taxes are quietly steering a lot of these moves. One thing that stood out to me is how much tax policy shapes where people land. Nevada is the closest state other than Washington that doesn’t have an income tax, and you see the effect of that, with a lot of people living in Reno for access to Tahoe, plus Vegas anchoring the state’s economy. That same tax logic shows up right in our own backyard, which is where the Portland story gets interesting.

Portland’s slow drift is a Vancouver story. Overall, Oregon is doing pretty well, and we’re starting to see a little population growth in the census surveys and in the local business surveys our state economist tracks. Portland itself, though, is still seeing some decline. It’s just so easy to move across the river to Vancouver and pick up the tax benefits, and I think we’ll keep seeing some drift from people who work from home or work remotely for an out-of-area business. I’ve had a lot of clients look hard at exactly that move.

If you’ve thought about leaving the Portland area for Vancouver, Camas, or Clark County, there’s still plenty of opportunity up there, and that market is growing and improving. I’d love to talk through both the benefits and the drawbacks of a move like that before you commit to one direction. If you want to look at your own numbers or weigh whether relocating makes sense for you, give me a call at 503-901-8100, email me at nkrautter@gmail.com, or visit sellpdx.com. I look forward to helping you make the call with real data behind it.