What the Case-Shiller Index Says About Portland Home Prices

By Nick Krautter

Nick Krautter is a Portland-based real estate professional, market analyst, and author of The Golden Handoff: How to Buy and Sell a Real Estate Agent’s Business, which debuted number one on Amazon for mergers and acquisitions.

The Case-Shiller home price index gets mentioned on the news constantly, and most people nod along without ever being told what it actually measures. I want to walk through what the index is, where you can find it, and what it says about Portland.

Indexing lets you compare cities fairly. The data goes back to 1987, and the index was reset so 2000 equals 100. It tracks 20 different cities along with the entire United States. The key point is that Portland, New York City, and Los Angeles have very different home prices. Raw prices can be confusing, and a bigger, pricier city might look like it appreciated more when a place like Portland may have actually gone up more as a percentage. Setting every market to the same starting point lets you compare the percentage change over time on equal footing.

The data is free on FRED. The chart I use comes from FRED, the economic database from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The name is kind of cute, but it’s a really important economic resource if you want to nerd out on this stuff. You can pull up Portland’s numbers yourself and play around with the 10- and 20-city indexes, too.

Portland climbed steadily, then boomed. Starting from 100 in 2000, Portland climbed steadily before its first big boom. The index rose to 125, about 25% above the 2000 level, then climbed to 185 at the last peak before the housing crisis and recession. At the time, that was our high, 85% above the 2000 level.

Less expansion meant less contraction. Many other markets, like Florida, Texas, Arizona, and Las Vegas, had much bigger pullbacks than Portland did because we hadn’t expanded as much in the first place. From that peak, Portland dropped to about 130, roughly 30% off the high. Starting around the beginning of 2012, prices went up pretty consistently as rates came down.

COVID sparked the fastest run-up yet. By the time COVID hit, 20 years after the benchmark was set at 100, the index sat at 245, almost two and a half times higher. After a brief blip that flattened for a couple of months, Portland saw the fastest expansion we’ve ever seen. By the next peak, the index climbed almost to 340, nearly three and a half times the 2000 level.

Rising rates flattened Portland prices. The post-COVID peak came in May 2022, just as interest rates started to rise. Typically, when rates go up, prices come down, and we did see a small pullback before things stabilized. Since then, Portland has been hanging around that 330 level. Anyone who bought in 2000 is up almost three and a half times, but over the last few years, it’s been up not much and down not much.

Flat prices still cost homeowners. Pricing has been about the same since the beginning of 2022, which adds up to four years of flat home prices. Once you factor in inflation along with increasing insurance costs, property taxes, and utility costs, you’re actually losing a bit against the market, even though prices have been pretty stable. I think we’ll be in this kind of stability mode for the time being.

If you want to talk through what these numbers mean for your own home or your next move, give me a call at 503-901-8100, email me at nkrautter@gmail.com, or visit sellpdx.com. You’ll find me at Sell PDX Team with SVN - Imbrie Realty, 7150 SW Fir Loop, Suite 100, Portland, OR 97223. I’m always happy to run the numbers with you.